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i'm not real optimistic. with asian and east european sources, i expect to be able to get film for as long as i need it, and developing chemistry can be made profitably in small runs so that's probably okay. but film is imploding at a MUCH faster rate than had been anticipated by people like eastman kodak, who are (1) in a better position than you and i to read the market trends and (2) in a position to accelerate the implosion if their economics so dictate. there are still applications for color print 35mm, especially in disposables, which were still growing last i heard; and carl zeiss have enough confidence to be launching new lens lines for existing 35mm manual focus mounts. but look at some precedents: vinyl records, apple computers, glass plate negatives.... they have merits over their more ascendant alternatives, and a dedicated following, but the force of the marketplace overwhelms them, small market share becomes microscopic, and it doesn't pay to manufacture the stuff to support them. you can still play your old records but you can't find new ones because there isn't enough of a critical mass of buyers to make it viable. unlike glass plates, 35mm film has to be made in substantial volume in order to make it at all, and at some point the bottom will fall out. i don't think anyone knows when that will be, but i think within 10 years we'll be reading our film labels in chinese and croatian. |